Increased Automation and Globalisation Forecast to have a Huge Impact on Jobs

The rise in Automation and Robots in the work place combined with globalisation is forecast to have a huge impact on jobs and further deepen the north-south divide in the UK.

The Centre for Cities think-tank new report Jan 2018, has analysed the likely combined impact of Automation and Globalisation by 2030 and expects one in five – or 3.6m – existing jobs in British cities to be displaced.

The report indicates that the impact on both these trends will impact more on towns and cities in the North and Midlands than those in the south further deepening the North-South divide.

It is estimated that about 18 percent of jobs are under threat in southern cities, compared with a staggering 23 percent of jobs in cities elsewhere in the country.

Generally, those jobs that are made up of routine tasks are at a greater risk of decline, whereas those occupations requiring interpersonal and cognitive skills are well placed to grow.

The report indicates that workers in retail, customer service and warehouse roles are among those most at threat.

Key findings in the report:

Jobs that are made up of routine tasks are at a greater risk of decline, whereas those occupations requiring interpersonal and cognitive skills are well placed to grow.

One in five jobs in cities across Great Britain is in an occupation that is very likely to shrink. This amounts to approximately 3.6 million jobs, or 20.2 per cent of the current workforce in cities.
An estimated 30 per cent of workers in some Northern and Midland towns and cities are in an occupation very likely to shrink by 2030. This contrasts starkly with cities such as Cambridge and Oxford where less than 15 per cent of jobs are at risk.

While big cities are relatively less exposed to occupations likely to shrink, they are likely to see a great deal of disruption. For example, London and Worthing have a similar share of jobs likely to see a decrease in demand (16.1 per cent in London, 16.0 per cent in Worthing), but this translates to around 908,000 jobs in London – 25 per cent of all jobs at risk in cities across Great Britain – and only 8,400 jobs in Worthing, which is just 0.2 per cent of all jobs at risk in cities.

All cities are likely to see jobs growth by 2030 and around half of this will be in publicly funded occupations. Yet, looking at the private sector, there is more variation – some cities (mainly in the South) will see many higher skilled private sector jobs growth, whereas others (mainly outside of the South) will see a growth in lower skilled private sector work.

Acknowledgments: centre for cities - to read full report